No evidence of new rally yet
Sometimes, after a sharp decline, a brief rebound is enough to reignite optimism on social media. But beneath the surface, little has changed: the dominant trend still points downward, and there is no convincing evidence of a structural reversal. At the same time, sovereign wealth funds and investment banks are quietly shifting their allocations toward bitcoin. Read more in this edition of Market News.
Market update
Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated around €56,000. Following the capitulation on 5 February, the price rose by 20% from €51,000 to €61,000 and then stabilized roughly halfway between those two levels. That move is comparable to the rebound after the 21 November low. At the time, the price rose by 20% from €70,000 to €84,000 before the next decline began.
On social media, there are already plenty of posts claiming that the bear market low is past and that a new bull market is imminent. That may be the case, but there is still little evidence of it in the data.
An alternative approach, as in a bull market, is to look at the dominant moving average on the weekly chart. Is the price trading below it, and is the average declining? If so, we can assume the trend is downward and that we are in a bear market. A weekly close above it would be a strong signal that we have indeed seen the bottom.
For Bitcoin, we often look at moving averages with a length of roughly one year. On a weekly chart, that corresponds to 50 or 52 weeks. That average currently stands at €86,000, while the price, at €56,000, remains well below it.
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The silent buyers of the bear market
Markets are under pressure and sentiment is fragile. It is precisely in this environment that Abu Dhabi significantly expanded its position in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.1 Mubadala, the state investment fund that manages over $300 billion, increased its stake in IBIT by 46% in the fourth quarter. A sister fund followed suit. Together, they now hold more than $1 billion worth of shares in the fund.
The news briefly made the headlines and then faded from view. That’s typical of a bear market. Negative developments get a lot of attention, while structural shifts quietly continue in the background. Anyone who examines the quarterly reports, however, sees something other than panic or speculation.
Mubadala treats Bitcoin in the same category as gold: a strategic store of value within a broad portfolio of technology, infrastructure, and financial assets. No hype, no quick profits. Simply an allocation decision. That is a world of difference.
And Abu Dhabi is not alone. Trading firm Jane Street expanded its position.2 Goldman Sachs reported billions in exposure through regulated funds.3 Morgan Stanley did the same. Even the U.S. state of Texas previously bought shares in a Bitcoin ETF, in anticipation of plans to hold Bitcoin directly.4
Another notable development is the emergence of Laurore Ltd., a Hong Kong–registered company with no public track record. The company holds hundreds of millions of dollars of shares exclusively in BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund. According to ProCap CIO Jeff Park, this may point to capital seeking exposure to Bitcoin via Hong Kong. Chinese investors have often used the city as a gateway to markets that are difficult to access from the mainland.5
Whether that proves to be true remains to be seen. But the broader picture is clear. While social media remains focused on disputes and short-term noise, sovereign wealth funds and investment banks are quietly increasing Bitcoin allocations by a few percentage points within their allocation models.
These aren’t transactions that will spark a new bull market tomorrow. But they are decisions that lay the foundation for the years ahead. In every bear market there are parties who sell out of fear, and parties who buy based on strategy. If you look closely, you’ll see that the second group rarely stands still.
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In other news
Brazil is drafting separate rules for institutional crypto service providers. The central bank plans to introduce a regulatory framework before 2027 for so-called B2B VASPs: such as Ripple, Fireblocks and BitGo, which provide infrastructure to other financial institutions. This would be in addition to existing rules for consumer platforms, for which a licensing regime is already in place. Brazil is one of the largest crypto markets in Latin America, where citizens can legally buy and use digital assets. With this new initiative, the regulator is focusing on the market's infrastructure layer.
Missouri seeks to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve. Under a new bill, the state treasury will create a separate fund that could be financed through voluntary Bitcoin donations or bequests from residents. The assets would have to be held for at least five years, after which they could be sold or converted. Notably, the bill also requires government agencies to accept state‑approved cryptocurrencies for the payment of taxes and fines.
Hong Kong exploring use of stablecoins as consumer vouchers. Member of Parliament Ng Kit-chong has proposed that, once the first licenses have been granted in March to stablecoin issuers, citizens receive “stablecoin vouchers” via an airdrop. These could then be spent at local SMEs, such as restaurants and cinemas. The measure would both stimulate the economy and normalize the use of regulated stablecoins. And the implementation costs? These would effectively be borne by the licensed issuers.
Dubai opens secondary market for tokenized real estate. The Dubai Land Department is issuing approximately $5 million worth of tokenized property. In total, 7.8 million tokens represent ten properties. Trading takes place on a regulated platform, transactions are conducted via XRP, and custody of the tokens is handled by Ripple. For Dubai, this marks the next step in the plan to make about $16 billion of real estate liquid through tokenization by 2033.
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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.