Bear market on the horizon

Bitvavo26 gen 2026

The recent Bitcoin price movement leaves little room for optimism. For ten weeks, the price has been drifting downwards, and every attempt at recovery is resolutely rejected. In this edition of Market News, we look at what this means for the bigger picture, and why ether seems to be gaining strength precisely under these same circumstances.

Market update

Sometimes a line chart helps separate the signal from the noise. A line chart looks only at closing prices and ignores everything else. On a weekly chart, this results in one data point per week. Everything that happens in between is invisible.

On Bitcoin’s weekly chart, a picture emerges of transition from a bull market to a bear market. For almost three years, prices rose steadily, creating a series of consecutively higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The price stayed above the 50-week moving average and that average was rising. That pattern now appears to be over.

The price has been below the dominant average for ten weeks, and every attempt to move back towards it is mercilessly rejected. There are few signs that the bull market will resume anytime soon. But that is not a disaster; even in bear markets, there are plenty of opportunities for traders and investors.

In financial markets, it pays to stay agile and adapt quickly to changing circumstances. A future signal that we are returning to a bullish regime would be acceptance of the price above the 50-week average. That average is currently at €88,000, about 20% above the current price of €73,000.

Featured

Ether staking reaches record level

Ethereum currently appears to be undergoing a quiet but meaningful shift. For the first time, more than 30 percent of all ether is staked. In absolute terms, this amounts to over 36 million ETH, with a combined value of approximately $120 billion. This means a record share of the total ether supply has been locked up. Economically, the network is now more heavily secured than ever before.

This development is visible in the validator queues. After months of exit pressure, the exit queue has almost completely cleared. Validators who wish to leave can currently do so within minutes. Meanwhile, there is a long queue at the entry gate. New validators now have to wait between 45 and 50 days to join, which is longer than during the previous peak in the summer of 2023.

Some analysts link this development directly to their price expectations. The larger the share of ether locked up for staking, the smaller the liquid ETH supply, and the lower the selling pressure. If buyers step in, this should move the ether price more quickly, according to this line of reasoning.

Large players seem to have an important role in the staking dynamics. Last autumn, staking provider Kiln withdrew hundreds of thousands of ETH from staking following a security incident. A portion of this has since returned to the company's validators, although the current level remains significantly lower than before.

In addition, the activity of BitMine has also drawn attention. The ether treasury company, led by Tom Lee, now owns more than 4.2 million ETH and recently reported staking nearly 600,000 additional ETH in a single week. That inflow almost exactly coincided with the rapid increase in the entry queue.

The high staking ratio brings with it a familiar tension. Ethereum deliberately limits the pace at which validators can exit. This increases the stability of the network but also means that a large-scale exit – for example if there is a market-wide need for liquidity – would require a considerable time to process. The current situation mainly reflects current confidence, not resilience under extreme stress.

All in all, the picture is relatively calm for now: the Ethereum network is slowly but surely becoming more economically robust. Not headline-grabbing news, but an important structural development.

Sources:

In other news

BitGo kicks off 2026 with a crypto IPO. The custody firm priced its IPO at 18 dollars per share, above the previously indicated range. This allowed the company to raise just over $212 million, valuing BitGo at around $2.1 billion. BitGo is the first serious crypto company to go public in 2026. Analysts struck a positive tone after the successful listing of the custodian: institutional interest right now is not driven by hype, but by infrastructure.
Kansas plans to establish a state fund for bitcoin and crypto. According to the draft legislation, the fund will be filled with cryptocurrency that comes into the state's possession through unclaimed property rules, for example when assets remain unclaimed for long periods. A noteworthy detail: unlike other assets, bitcoin may explicitly not be transferred to the general state treasury. The plan fits into a broader movement in the US to establish how governments should handle bitcoin.
Stablecoins could absorb up to 20% of bank deposits in emerging markets. According to S&P Global, in the most extreme scenario, the total value of stablecoins in emerging economies will grow from 70 billion dollars now to 730 billion dollars. That would equal 10-20% of bank deposits in countries like Argentina and Turkey. The drivers are well-known: preservation of purchasing power, international payments, and trade. At the same time, S&P states that even this scenario would not disrupt banks or monetary policy.
DePIN loses its appeal with venture capital. Investors are becoming divided over so-called decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN): projects that aim to decentralize and tokenize physical infrastructure, from GPUs to cell towers. Critics say the models clash with economic reality. Hardware is expensive, financing is even more expensive, and returns often disappoint. Last year, the World Economic Forum predicted that this market could grow to 3.5 trillion dollars. In 2025, DePIN tokens lost an average of more than 80% of their value.

Sources:

Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the focus shifts from Davos to The Hague. The World Economic Forum brought together big names and major themes, with discussions on American policy, Europe's direction, and the role of crypto on the global stage. Closer to home, the proposed Box 3 taxation system caused an uproar. What went wrong, and why is it affecting so many people? As always, the episode concludes with a market update.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.