Trump's trade war puts pressure on prices

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Last week, Bitcoin briefly regained momentum before news of fresh import tariffs from Washington pulled the market back down. Meanwhile, the long-awaited Clarity Act has been delayed once again, adding further uncertainty for investors and businesses. In this edition, we explain why the market is back on pause, and why that could last for some time.

Market update

Since the low on November 21, €81,000 has acted as the upper limit for the Bitcoin price. On eight separate days, the price touched that boundary without breaking through. Last week, it finally succeeded, with a rapid rise from €78,000 to €84,000 on January 13 and 14.

Optimism cautiously returned, and the boldest investors were once again talking about breaking through the one hundred-thousand-dollar mark to reach new all-time highs. That optimism proved short-lived. Over the weekend, Trump imposed new import tariffs on European countries. Investors who hoped America’s trade war was buried were disappointed.

Notably, Bitcoin’s price only started to fall when Asian stock markets and U.S. futures opened. In the past, Bitcoin has regularly functioned as the canary in the coal mine over the weekend, moving up or down while traditional markets were still closed.

On Monday, January 19, the American stock exchange is closed for Martin Luther King Day. That gives Trump an extra day to confirm or reverse the new tariffs. We will likely only have a clearer picture of the meaning of this price drop later this week. For now, it is a case of waiting, with Bitcoin once again trading below €81,000.

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American 'MiCA' put on hold

Washington could have seized a rare moment to bring order to the process this week. For a moment, it looked as if the process of introducing the Clarity Act might finally take a step forward. But at the last moment, key formalities were postponed. As if that wasn't enough, several influential players also publicly withdrew their support.

The Clarity Act is an attempt to bring structure to the American crypto market. For years, the landscape has been hostile. Companies launched tokens, the SEC cracked down, and the resulting disagreements were fought out in court. This legislation is meant to introduce clear classifications and division of roles. Europe has MiCA as a single regulatory framework, while the US is opting for separate building blocks. The Genius Act regulates stablecoins, and the Clarity Act is supposed to establish the rest of the market structure.

But that is precisely where the friction now lies. Multiple versions of the bill are circulating in the Senate, coming from different committees. This makes the legislation vulnerable to lobbying and undesirable compromises. Critics fear the balance is tilting too far towards protecting the existing financial system. Not because crypto necessarily needs free rein, but because too many restrictions turn “clarity” into “unnecessary restraint.”

Interest on stablecoins is a particularly sensitive issue. It directly affects where savings and collateral may flow in the future. If yield-bearing crypto dollars become too attractive, money could be pulled out of traditional bank accounts. Banks see this as a threat to stability and financing. The crypto world sees it as healthy competition that should not be stifled by regulation.

As a result, consumer protection has taken on a new political meaning. For some, it means fewer risks, fewer opaque products, and more oversight. For others, it means protection of the status quo against new financial infrastructure. The debate is therefore not just about crypto, but about who controls the financial rails.

A delay does not have to mean cancellation, but it does show how fragile the political momentum is. Under the Trump administration, the US currently has a pro-crypto tailwind. If this opportunity gets bogged down in committee politics and bank lobbying, it could take years before there is room for another major piece of legislation. And as long as regulatory clarity is lacking, the market will remain stuck between interpretations, lawsuits, and rules that were never designed for crypto.

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In other news

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Goldman Sachs explores a deeper move into crypto. CEO David Solomon said during the presentation of the bank’s quarterly figures that Goldman is intensifying its research into tokenization, stablecoins, and regulated prediction markets. The bank is looking at how these technologies could be integrated into its existing infrastructure and product offering. Once again, the message is clear: Wall Street no longer sees this market as niche.

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Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, politics and the markets collide once again. The clash between Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump caused unrest. The hosts also talk about Michael Saylor, who was visibly irritated in a recent interview. We talk about the Clarity Act, which has been unexpectedly delayed. As always, the episode is concluded with a market update.

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