The market calls for patience
The price of Bitcoin has been moving within a relatively narrow range for months now. At first glance, the market seems calm, but beneath the surface there are mixed signals. In the short term, uncertainty is prevailing, but those looking further ahead see that the bigger picture is remarkably stable. This is not the case for prediction markets, which are growing rapidly and are beginning to face the downside of their own success. More on these topics in this edition of Market News.
Market update
Since early February, the price of Bitcoin has been hovering at the upper end of a relatively narrow price range by Bitcoin standards, between 51,000 and 68,000 euros. This price movement is impressive given the circumstances on the world stage, however, the underlying signals remain mixed.
The closer you get to the price, the greater the uncertainties become. Especially over the timeframe of days and weeks, the direction remains undecided. Macro analysts see fewer and fewer reasons to remain bearish, while technical analysts are warning of a bumpy ride. They are paying attention to so-called swing failures, brief breakouts that are quickly reversed. These patterns provide solid arguments for a move back to the lows of February and March before the upward path becomes clearer.
In the slightly longer term, that picture becomes less pronounced. On the monthly chart, the bull market came to an end in February 2026, with a lower low. This is a clear sign of a cooling market, however the monthly chart sits in something of a no man's land. The timeframe is too long for active trading and too short to make a judgment about the long-term trend.
We must therefore consider the yearly chart, which shows that the underlying trend is still intact. Bitcoin has formed higher highs and higher lows across multiple cycles. As long as the lows in this context are not broken, it is reasonable to assume that corrections are part of a continuing trend.
This creates a dichotomy. In the short term, the market could move in any direction, and a pullback towards the recent lows is certainly possible. In the long term, however, the outlook remains constructive, provided investors are willing to be patient.
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Prediction markets under fire
Prediction markets are in the spotlight, and that is rarely a good sign. Last week, lawsuits, political interference, and clear cases of misconduct piled up around platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
On one side, American states are pushing back. New York and Wisconsin argue that these platforms facilitate illegal gambling practices. At the same time, several states announced new measures aimed at preventing insider trading by public officials.
On the other side, the federal regulator, the CFTC, believes that prediction markets fall under its exclusive oversight. From that perspective, states have no legal authority to intervene. The result is a legal standoff in which state governments and the federal government are openly challenging each other.
The conflict became even more charged after a striking example of market abuse emerged. An American soldier allegedly earned over $400,000 by betting on a secret operation involving the capture of the Venezuelan president. Clearly he was trading on insider information. Shortly after the operation he tried to cover his tracks. He now faces a lengthy prison sentence.
A second example of market manipulation came from France where police are investigating the sabotage of a temperature reading that determined the outcome of a market on Polymarket. By allegedly intervening physically with a weather station, possibly with something as simple as a hairdryer as a heat source, an outcome may have been forced. This allowed for significant profit to be made with minimal effort.
It is clear that this market is growing faster than regulation can handle. The trading volume on prediction markets has exploded in the space of a year, reaching tens of billions of dollars per month and hundreds of thousands of active users.
All in all, this strengthens the call for stricter regulations. These will determine whether these markets can fulfill their promise of efficient information processing or ultimately become what critics fear: a casino with the cards already marked.
In other news
Litecoin rewrites three hours of transaction history after attack on privacy layer. Attackers used a so-called zero-day exploit to double-spend Litecoin funds, including on decentralized exchanges. The network responded with a drastic measure: a reorganization of 13 blocks, which removed the fraudulent transactions from its history. This limits the damage but shifts the problem to parties outside the chain, where losses have been reported. The market showed little reaction to the incident.
Bitcoin ETFs attract hundreds of millions again as inflows continue. Over five days, $824 million flowed into Bitcoin funds, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows. Ether follows with three positive weeks in a row. Last week, even smaller players like Solana and XRP attracted fresh capital. The picture is clear: interest remains high among traditional investors seeking exposure through regulated products.
Western Union launches own stablecoin and aims to reinvent international payments. With USDPT, built on Solana, the company aims to settle transactions faster and cheaper than through the traditional SWIFT system. The stablecoin is initially intended, not for consumers, but for internal settlement between partners. Western Union is also continuing to build a network that connects crypto and fiat, while working on a payment card for global use. USDPT is expected to launch within a month.
Tether freezes $344 million, the largest 'seizure' to date. The USDT funds on Tron were frozen in cooperation with U.S. authorities. This is believed to be related to the enforcement of sanctions linked to the war in Iran. In total, Tether has now frozen over $4.4 billion. This week's seizure accounts for about 8 percent of that total. Tether claims to work with over 340 law enforcement agencies in 65 countries and has supported more than 2,300 cases worldwide.
Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, risks and opportunities sit side by side. For instance, Charles Schwab has started educating its clients about bitcoin and ether. At the same time, the KelpDAO hack shows just how vulnerable the sector still is. The hosts also discuss developments in the US, related to military support for Bitcoin and rumors of incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.