Crypto and US stocks in a correction
The US stock market has taken a decent dive in recent weeks, dropping alongside the broader crypto market to its lowest point since November. Will the crypto market's four-year low hold? That's what we'll be discussing in this edition of Bitvavo Market News. We'll also take a closer look at Ripple's latest initiative as it gains traction.
Market update
Last week was another unpredictable one for the US government: decisions on import tariffs were made, then quickly reversed. The resulting uncertainty isn't doing US financial markets any favors. The question is, will Trump stick with this approach? If so, a longer and deeper correction of the stock market seems obvious.
This scenario would put the crypto market at an interesting crossroads. Will the crypto market follow the potential downward trend of the stock market? If so, it could disrupt the established pattern of hitting a high every four years and a low every four years, along with the idea that the 18 months following a Bitcoin halving are typically marked by rising prices.
Perhaps in this scenario, after a subdued bull market, a mild and brief bear market will also follow. This new dynamic might result in less dramatic highs and less severe lows compared to the past. If that happens, a potentially underwhelming 2025 could set the stage for an unexpectedly strong 2026.
Will the four-year cycle hold? If it does, then we can expect the peak of this bull market to come in the second half of this year. This would likely be followed by the usual bear market, with prices bottoming out within a year, as represented by the blue line in the graph below.
Alternatively, if we enter a new paradigm where intense bull and bear markets are replaced by steady growth in line with broader financial markets, we could see something resembling the green line.
In this scenario, it's clear that altcoins would continue to follow Bitcoin's movements. When Bitcoin performs well, certain groups of altcoins often see rapid gains. Conversely, if Bitcoin faces a few weaker quarters, altcoins are likely to struggle even more.
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Ripple invests $50 million in influence
Ripple is hitting headlines once again, this time with the launch of a new lobbying group in Washington: the National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA). This organization aims to make crypto easier to understand for the general public, policymakers, and the media.
Its mission is to help Americans grasp what crypto is, what it does and why it matters—not through technical jargon or promises of skyrocketing prices, but by sharing real stories from real people. The NCA says it wants to build trust and acceptance through education and personal examples.
The association is still in its early stages, but its ambitions are big. Ripple is fully funding the initiative, investing $50 million right from the start. This positions the company once again as one of the most influential players at the intersection of crypto and policy.
The NCA's first action was unveiled last week: a survey of ten thousand Americans conducted in conjunction with the renowned Harris Poll. The results show that 76% of people who use crypto see it as having a positive impact on their lives. Moreover, more than 80% wanted to better understand where the industry is headed. According to the NCA, these figures highlight the need for education and thoughtful discussion.
And this is the reason behind the association — no loud campaigns, but data and personal stories. This approach makes it strikingly different from previous attempts to put crypto on the political map, which often focused on regulation or legal battles. Ripple is taking the long view here: public trust first, then legislation.
Visibility pays off for Ripple
Despite the positive buzz, Ripple’s new initiative has also faced some skepticism. Ripple is a company that has a history of courting controversy more often than not. For example, in 2022, it funded an anti-Bitcoin campaign through Greenpeace, designed to question the network's energy consumption. While the campaign ultimately failed to gain traction, it left a lasting impression: Ripple is seen as having a vested interest in making XRP the center of attention, at the expense of other coins.
In this sense, the NCA is not just a pro-crypto organization, but also a strategic tool for Ripple. XRP has been among the most traded coins in the world for years, and that's not solely because of the products the company has built. It is also a result of their focus on visibility, positioning and smart policies.
A recent example of this surfaced in U.S. politics. In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump mentioned XRP as part of a possible "strategic crypto reserve" for the United States.
Ripple has played this game before, with varying degrees of success. But no one can say they aren't persistent. In an industry where adoption, recognition and legitimacy are increasingly important, that may be just what counts.
In other news
Tether heading towards transparency with full financial audit, with the task assigned to Tether's new CFO, Simon McWilliams. Critics have been pushing for this move for years. With more than 20 years of financial management experience, McWilliams is expected to help build confidence in the world's largest stablecoin issuer. Until now, Tether has only published quarterly attestations of its reserves, but a true audit - independent and complete - has yet to be conducted. This move seems aimed at finally addressing this.
Dutch most interested in crypto. A new study by LegalBison reveals that, on average, Dutch citizens search for terms like "bitcoin," "dogecoin", and "cryptocurrency" 5,593 times per month per 100,000 residents. This puts the Netherlands ahead of countries like Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Notably, all five of the top-ranking countries are in Europe, and surprisingly, the United States doesn’t even make the top ten.
The crypto world's speculative engines are stalling. Activity on Pump.Fun, the memecoin factory on Solana, is down 80% since January. The NFT market is also struggling: trading volumes plummeted 73% after OpenSea decided to end rewards for placing bids and minting new NFTs. Even collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Apes have remained relatively quiet. This points to a more cautious, wait-and-see approach among speculators - perhaps they, too, need to catch their breath amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil.
'Most important proposal ever': Aave introduces new tokenomics to the DAO. Key elements of the plan include weekly AAVE buybacks worth $1 million, the creation of a dedicated finance committee, the official closure of the LEND chapter after nearly five years, and the introduction of a token that can be used to repay debt or boost staking rewards. With this, Aave is positioning itself as a mature DeFi protocol with cash reserves, a solid reputation, and a strategic plan to expand its market share by 2025.
Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the hosts talk extensively about a remarkable development in El Salvador. Their bitcoin strategy is in jeopardy because of a billion-dollar deal with the IMF. What are the details and what does the IMF have to do with Salvadoran bitcoin policy? As always, you also get a deep dive into the tumultuous market conditions.
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