Bitcoin price takes a step down

Last week, Bitcoin's price dropped below several widely followed averages. For some investors, this served as a prompt to take profits. Does this mean a bear market is now inevitable? You’ll find more on that in this Market News update. We also take a look at the reopening of the US government.

Market update

Bitcoin's price fell 11% last week, dropping from €91,000 to €81,000. For the first time since the first quarter of 2023, the weekly close was below the moving average, which has often served as a useful dividing line between bull and bear markets.

Investors typically use a moving average of about a year for this purpose. The 50-, 52-, and 55-week averages are common references. A weekly close below these increases the likelihood that the upward trend, i.e. the bull market, has ended.

Some of the recent selling pressure can be attributed to investors taking profits based on this signal. After all, compared to the €16,000 levels of November and December 2022, Bitcoin is still up more than 400%.

That doesn’t mean a deep bear market is now unavoidable. No single indicator is foolproof. It's possible that we will simply continue the bull market from here, perhaps after a prolonged period of consolidation below €100,000. One argument for this is the macroeconomic backdrop, which is now much stronger than it was at the beginning of 2022 at the start of the previous bear market.

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Crypto back on the move after US government reopens

There is a white flag at last. The US Senate reached an agreement last week to end the longest shutdown in history. Now that the House of Representatives has also agreed, the government can reopen. The approved bill funds the federal government until January 30: “The federal government will now resume normal operations,” Trump said while signing the bill.

For the crypto market, this means that the obstacles surrounding oversight, investment product approvals, and new legislation will gradually be lifted. With a bit of luck, progress will be made on issues that have been on standby for months.

Take the SEC, for instance. Chairman Paul Atkins is eager to revive his so-called innovation exemption: a temporary exemption that gives companies the space to experiment with digital assets without immediately having to navigate the legal minefield. While Washington was locked down, it remained mere words, however now, the policy can finally become reality, ideally before the end of the year.

The reopening also brings new crypto-related exchange products back into view, such as the long-awaited wave of new spot ETFs. First up was XRP. Canary Capital's fund opened late last week, immediately setting a record. Given the years-long battle between the SEC and Ripple, this is a significant symbolic victory, and more importantly, it's also a sign that the regulator is charting a new course: fewer prohibitions, more approvals.

Across the street at the CFTC, the reopening means that the appointment of Mike Selig can finally proceed. He’s seen as a pragmatic regulator who doesn't want to hold crypto back but rather integrate it into existing markets. His appointment could open the door to clearer rules around derivatives and spot markets, which is precisely the clarity institutional investors have been looking for.

In short, the reopening of the government doesn't change everything overnight. But the handbrake is being lifted from American crypto policy. Regulators can take charge again, policymakers can get back to drafting, and market participants can start planning once more. At least until the end of January, when this whole story will likely start all over again.

In other news

• US gives crypto funds the green light to stake. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced this on Monday. Funds may stake the assets they hold, provided they stick to a single coin, use a qualified custodian, and allow investors to exit at any time. This provides important clarity for ETF issuers: staking is now officially recognized as a legitimate, tax-compliant source of yield.
• Michael Saylor dismisses rumors about alleged sale of Strategy. Social media was buzzing with claims that Strategy had liquidated part of its Bitcoin holdings, which reportedly amount to nearly 47,000 BTC. There's no truth in this, said Saylor. To emphasize this, the Strategy CEO appeared on CNBC to explain the situation. He stated that his company's acquisitions have actually accelerated. More information on this is expected to be released on Monday.
• Canary’s XRP ETF (XRPC) off to a flying start. The fund launched on November 13 and recorded more than $58 million in trading volume on its first day. According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, this is the strongest start for an ETF in 2025. The fund thus overtakes the top spot from Bitwise's Solana fund, which set a record in October. The launch of XRPC coincided with more than $1 billion in outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum funds.
• Czech Central Bank experiments with Bitcoin. The Czech National Bank invested about $1 million in an experimental portfolio containing Bitcoin and stablecoins. This sits just outside its official reserves and serves as a learning exercise in managing digital assets. Some analysts call it a noteworthy signal: even central banks now want to understand how to handle Bitcoin.

Satoshi Radio: The recent episode of Satoshi Radio aired live from the Bitcoin Amsterdam conference. On stage, the hosts discussed Polymarket, the lawsuit against the developers of Samourai Wallet, the McRib index, and the slow adoption of new crypto regulations in the US. The episode concluded with a pressing question: has the bear market begun or not?

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