Bear market reaches next phase

BitvavoApr 13, 2026

The crypto market appears to have entered a new phase. Sharp declines are giving way to calm and, where sellers once set the tone, investors are now patiently building positions. These shifts may not be immediately reflected in prices, but they often precede a turning point in the cycle. Meanwhile, attention has returned to a familiar, recurring question: who is the founder of Bitcoin? More on this in today’s edition of the Market News.

Market update

By many measures, the market has entered the second half of its bear cycle. We are now more than six months past the October 6, 2025 peak, and historically, the declining phase has often lasted around a year. We can also observe a shift in the character of both on-chain and exchange data.

The market appears to be moving beyond the phase in which fearful sellers exit their positions at significant losses. Instead, investors are now accumulating more patiently and deliberately. This type of accumulation typically precedes a new period of growth and a transition into a bull market.

Historically, bottoms have consistently formed within the range defined by the 200-week moving average and the realized price, which is the average purchase price of all Bitcoin investors. At the beginning of this year, both indicators were near $57,000, but they have since diverged. By the summer, they are expected to form a range between $53,000 and $63,000.

In financial markets, there are no certainties, only probabilities. However, it is plausible that a bear market bottom could form within this range over the course of the summer.

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Has Satoshi Nakamoto been found?

The search for Bitcoin’s inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto, increasingly resembles a modern gold rush. Over the years, Satoshi’s identity has taken on an almost mythical status, and each new attempt to uncover it generates significant attention. Yet the pattern is familiar: widespread interest, but little conclusive evidence.

This week, it was The New York Times that took their turn. Investigative journalist John Carreyrou, best known for his work on Theranos, published a long-form article following eighteen months of research, in which he points to Adam Back as Satoshi. It is a serious claim from a respected journalist, lending more weight than the typical blog post or documentary on the subject.¹

However, the argument relies largely on circumstantial evidence. Back was active in the cypherpunk movement, developed Hashcash, a precursor to Bitcoin’s proof-of-work, and is the only individual cited by Satoshi in the white paper. Combined with similarities in writing style and timing, the case may appear persuasive at first glance.

Back was quick to deny the claim: “I’m not Satoshi.” He argues that such similarities are neither unusual nor meaningful. The cypherpunk movement was not a loose collection of individuals, but a closely connected network in which ideas and code were continuously shared. Those looking for unique characteristics in that context quickly find patterns that do not exist.²

Skepticism is also widespread within the Bitcoin community, not out of loyalty to Back, but due to experience with similar claims. Dorian Nakamoto, Craig Wright, Peter Todd, time and again, individuals have been identified, only to deny the allegations, with the claims ultimately failing to withstand scrutiny. Wright represents the most extreme case: years of assertions and legal battles, culminating in a judicial finding that his claims were false.³

In most cases, the evidence rarely extends beyond suggestive indicators such as stylometric analysis, timelines, and technical parallels. While intriguing, these elements are far from definitive, particularly when assessing someone who deliberately sought anonymity.

There are also substantive counterarguments. Some programmers highlight differences between Back’s code and Satoshi’s, while others note that Back only became active on Bitcoin forums after Satoshi had already disappeared. These points are not conclusive, but they further weaken the case.

Ultimately, this uncertainty serves a purpose. Satoshi’s anonymity has shaped Bitcoin into what it is today: a system without a central figure or leader. The network operates independently of its creator, and for now that is unlikely to change. Until the next alleged unmasking emerges, the mystery remains. And it likely won’t be long: on April 22, the documentary Finding Satoshi is set to be released. Another attempt, likely with a familiar outcome.⁴

Sources:

In other news

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF goes live and immediately attracts tens of millions. The fund ($MSBT) raised over $30 million on day one and is competing aggressively with existing ETFs through lower fees. For the bank, the launch marks the beginning of a closer relationship with the crypto sector. The broader message: institutional inflows continue, regardless of short-term price movements.
Iran wants ships in Hormuz to pay tolls in bitcoin. According to a regime spokesperson, a $1 per barrel fee would apply. While bitcoin was specifically mentioned, analysts expect Iran may ultimately favor stablecoins. For Iran, the rationale is clear: circumvent sanctions and secure revenue streams. If bitcoin were to be used, it would take on a far more sensitive geopolitical role.
Hacker creates 1 billion DOT out of thin air and dumps it immediately. Through a vulnerability in a bridge contract, the attacker minted Polkadot tokens on Ethereum and sold them, netting about $237,000 in profit. The overall damage was limited due to low liquidity, though trading in DOT was temporarily halted on several Korean exchanges. Polkadot itself was not compromised; the issue appears to stem from weaknesses in the interoperability protocol, Hyperbridge.
Stablecoins could become a dominant payment infrastructure. Chainalysis estimates that stablecoin transaction volume could reach $719 trillion by 2035. The analytics firm highlights two key drivers: the transfer of roughly $100 trillion in wealth to younger, more crypto-native generations, and the growing integration of stablecoins into everyday payment systems. If this trend continues, traditional payment networks could face increasing pressure.

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Satoshi Radio: In the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, last week's Drift hack is discussed in more detail. It turned out to be much more ingenious than previously thought. The episode also pays attention to technological developments surrounding bitcoin miners. Finally, the hosts discuss a new article claiming to reveal the identity behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. As always, a comprehensive market update concludes the episode.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.