Altcoin market shows notable resilience
The past few months have been uncertain. There were concerns about geopolitics, market sentiment, and the question of where risk is still rewarded. In such an environment, you would expect capital to retreat to the safest corners of the market. Yet, crypto presents a different picture. Not only does bitcoin hold its ground, but altcoins also prove to be remarkably resilient. At the same time, a question arises that is more fundamental than price movements: how future-proof are crypto networks themselves? More on that in this edition of the Market News.
Market update
In some circumstances, the focus shifts more to bitcoin than to the rest of the crypto market. For example, in bear markets, or during times of low risk appetite among investors. Or when significant economic or geopolitical events occur. The past two months have seen all three.
In the past, altcoins often performed significantly worse in a fearful market than bitcoin. That is not the case now. Admittedly, since the market peak on October 6, most altcoins have lost more than bitcoin. But since the capitulation on February 5, they have been moving sideways with bitcoin, cutting through the unrest of the war in Iran.
Looking at individual tokens, there are some notable exceptions. Since the beginning of this year, the focal point is around -25%. Bittensor (TAO), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Morpho stand out with a gain of about 40-50% and a clear narrative.
With new projects, profits can come and go quickly. A few months of good performance is no guarantee that a project will grow into a successful product with independent viability. But these projects illustrate the remarkable resilience of the altcoin market. It may be a bear market, but crypto is far from dead.
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Quantum threat to bitcoin approaches
Google has thrown a stone into the pond. You could say a brick. In a new paper, the company states that breaking the encryption behind bitcoin requires much less quantum computing power than previously assumed. Less than 500,000 so-called qubits would be needed, instead of the previously estimated millions. At that number of qubits, only nine minutes would be needed in theory.Ā¹
It is a factor of twenty more efficient than earlier estimates. Thus, the often-heard doomsday scenario shifts from 'someday' to a timeline that feels uncomfortably close.
The vulnerability lies in the way ownership of bitcoin is proven. When someone makes a transaction, they reveal their public key. This is currently safe because classical computers cannot do anything with it. But a quantum computer could theoretically derive the corresponding private key from that public key, even before a published transaction is processed. And thus, the balance could simply be taken over.
According to Google, there are about 6.9 million bitcoins in addresses where the public key is already visible. This concerns a significant portion of the total amount of BTC. This includes old addresses from the early days, which are assumed to no longer be able to undergo manual migration.
The researchers name 2029 as a pivotal year. By then, measures must have been taken against the risks of quantum computers. Governments worldwide are already on similar timelines. For example, the NSA wants all systems to be quantum-safe by 2030. For bitcoin, that is a relatively short horizon. Major upgrades affecting the entire ecosystem take years of discussion, development, and implementation.
Responses within the bitcoin community vary. Some raise the alarm, while others downplay it. The most telling response comes from outside the sector. Renowned computer scientist Scott Aaronson calls the news a 'bombshell' and states that it increases the necessity to switch to quantum-safe cryptography now.Ā²
Concrete solutions are already being explored. For example, there is BIP-360, a proposal for new bitcoin addresses (P2MR) where public keys are no longer visible, even during transactions. This would render a quantum attack pointless. The proposal is currently running on a testnet. Multiple teams are working in parallel on a network resistant to quantum computers at Ethereum.Ā³
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In other news
Infrastructure for AI agents gets its own foundation. The Linux Foundation has established the x402 Foundation. The foundation oversees the x402 protocol. This is a payment protocol for AI agents with more than twenty major companies as participants. The daily transaction volume of x402 is only $28,000, of which half is reportedly artificial according to Artemis. In March, Stripe launched a competing protocol, supported by OpenAI and Anthropic.
Charles Schwab to make bitcoin and ether directly tradable for customers. By the first half of 2026, investors should be able to buy crypto within the same environment as their stocks and bonds. With nearly $12 trillion in customer assets, Schwab can reach a large group of investors who are currently dependent on external platforms. The company claims to be responding to the increased demand for crypto among investors.
Market for tokenized assets grows to $27.6 billion. It is one of the few segments still seeing inflow. Particularly U.S. government bonds are popular in this market, followed by commodities and credit products. Tokenized stocks are also gaining ground. Although the total size is still limited, trading volume has significantly increased, indicating active use. The market is still heavily concentrated among a few providers.
U.S. government protects prediction markets, sues states. According to Washington, states cannot treat platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as gambling companies. These platforms offer contracts on the outcome of events. States see this as gambling, but the federal regulator considers it a financial market. The case revolves around authority. Who sets the rules for this new category: the states or the federal government?
Sources:
Satoshi Radio: InĀ the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, concerns and vulnerabilities are discussed. For instance, a new paper from Google on quantum computing raises questions about the security of cryptography. A major hack once again demonstrates the sector's weakness. At the same time, the institutional corner of the market is growing, with new ETFs, initiatives from major players, and broader acceptance of Bitcoin payments. As always, the episode concludes with a market update, which addresses geopolitical tensions.
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