2025 breaks with the four-year cycle
The crypto market kicked off 2026 with an unusual red year candle for Bitcoin: a visual breaking point compared to the rhythm of previous cycles. The market appears to be heading towards a more mature phase, forcing investors to adjust their expectations. That includes altcoins, which suffered significant losses in 2025. This edition of the Market News looks both forward and back: what does 2025 say about what 2026 might bring?
Market update
Bitcoin, and the crypto market as a whole, closed 2025 with a slight loss and a red candle on the annual chart. This broke the pattern of three green years followed by one red.
Many other beliefs about the Bitcoin price have also been shattered this market cycle. In 2022, the bottom was below the previous peak of 2017. In 2024, Bitcoin made an all-time high even before the halving. And in 2025, there was no spectacular bull run in the third year of the bull market. One by one, these sacred cows of previous cycles are making way for mature analysis.
The last sacred cow is that the fourth year always experiences a deep bear market, with a price drop of more than 75%. If 2026 were to close with a profit, that belief could also be discarded. A nice nod is that the Bitcoin blockchain will turn exactly 18 years old on January 3, 2027.
Should we reach a record price this year, that would be extra bullish. That would signal that investors no longer have to look for an exit moment every four years, but can quietly hold onto their investment for many years, just like with other investments.
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Altcoins: bad year, but not dead
For altcoins, 2025 was a year to quickly forget. While the S&P 500 delivered returns and Bitcoin held its ground relatively well, the broader altcoin segment was hit hard. Not in a few specific places, but across the board. Many projects never came close to previous peaks and are significantly under water at the start of 2026.
Well-known names from the previous cycle were not spared either. DeFi projects that are considered fundamental are still significantly lower. Other tokens, built on big promises but with little lasting utility, have virtually disappeared. Capital proved to be unforgiving in 2025.
The common thread was clear: investors were no longer seeking general risk, but only opportunities with a clear asymmetric relationship between risk and potential return. Bitcoin fit that picture. Most altcoins did not.
However, that does not mean that the altcoin segment has become irrelevant. As soon as the market shows signs of recovery, movement emerges there too. It was notable that this week, memecoins were the first to rally. The value of PEPE, DOGE, and SHIB quickly increased. Not because of technological breakthroughs, but because they function as pure sentiment and volatility indicators.
This makes the position of āseriousā altcoins difficult. They are too risky to serve as a safe haven, but often lack the simplicity and appeal of a short-term gamble. In a market that has become cautious, this does not work in their favor.
Altcoins have not disappeared, but the market has changed. The conditions of 2021, where a good narrative or a strong name was enough to attract capital, are over. 2025 served as a strict selection year. Tough, but educational. And those who want to erase that year from their memory now run the risk of making the exact same mistakes in 2026.
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In other news
Of the major cryptocurrencies, Zcash performed best this year. Not Bitcoin or Ether, but ZEC tops the list of risers, with 800%. The privacy narrative visibly gained ground in 2025. Analysts cite stricter regulation and increasing oversight of central platforms as reasons. This translates into rising volumes and prices for coins like Zcash and Monero. Institutional parties are participating: Cypherpunk Technologies recently significantly expanded its Zcash position.
Capital continues to flow into crypto. At the end of December, capital flowed back into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs: a net 459 million dollars was added in one week, largely through BlackRockās IBIT. At the same time, 161 million dollars flowed out of Ethereum ETFs. SOL and XRP funds recorded modest inflows. Over the whole of 2025, a worldwide total of 47.2 billion dollars entered the crypto market via the ETF route, just under the record year 2024.
Grayscale sees 2026 as the start of the āinstitutional eraā for crypto. According to research head Zach Pandl, Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. The drivers behind this: growing demand for alternative capital in an uncertain global economy, expectations of a weaker dollar, and possible interest rate cuts by the Fed. Add to that better US crypto regulations, and, according to Grayscale, the playing field is definitively shifting towards institutional investors.
PwC is increasing its focus on crypto and tokenization. After years of restraint, PwC is significantly scaling up its activities around digital assets. According to PwC CEO Paul Griggs, the strategic shift came last year, when the tone of regulators in the US became noticeably friendlier and Congress began working on legislation around stablecoins and crypto. PwC sees tokenization not as hype, but as a structural development. It is unclear whether this shift is also being implemented by the European branch of PwC.
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Satoshi Radio: This special episode of Satoshi Radio looks ahead to 2026. What can we expect from bitcoin and altcoins, and what role will ETFs, institutional investors, and stablecoins play in the coming year? Bigger questions are also addressed: will the US maintain its lead over Europe, and what moves does Michael Saylor have in store?
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