Bitcoin on thin ice

BitvavoDec 29, 2025

A new year rarely starts neutrally, especially not in crypto. Bitcoin is moving sideways, constrained by a few dominant trend lines. Will a recovery follow, or will we see another decline first? In this edition of Market News, we look at Bitcoin’s starting position, the long-term signals that contradict it, and why 2026 could be the year that breaks the pattern.

Market update

There is no single, universally accepted definition of a “bull market” or a “bear market.” Broadly speaking, it refers to a regime in which prices rise (or fall) and investors expect that trend to continue. In practice, Bitcoin’s bull market aligns with the upward trend on the weekly chart. You can recognise this by a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), and by a price that stays above its moving averages and finds support there.

Many analysts focus on a moving average with a length of roughly one year: commonly 10 or 12 months, 50 or 52 weeks, or 365 or 400 days, measured using the close on the monthly, weekly, or daily chart.

Such a dominant average is not a perfect dividing line, but it is a useful one. Above it, prices tend to rise; below it, they tend to fall. Since early November, Bitcoin has been trading below this average. That is not a guarantee of a long or deep bear market, but it is reason enough to enter the new year with more tempered expectations.

In the short term, the market faces a choice. Do we first see a recovery toward €87,000 to test the dominant average? That level also coincides with the key $100,000 threshold on the dollar chart. Or do we first move down toward €67,000, the level that acted as a turning point several times in 2024 and 2025?

Featured

2026 will be a turning point

Around the turn of the year, flashy price targets fade into the background. They give way to reflection and longer-term perspectives. Major players - from investment funds to payment processors - are laying their cards on the table.

If you compare forecasts for 2026, the level of agreement is striking.

The first point of consensus: stablecoins are finally breaking out of their niche. What began as a tool for traders is evolving into a full-scale payment infrastructure. Visa, Galaxy and various research firms expect stablecoins to be used globally by 2026, processing transaction volumes that can compete with existing payment systems - and by people who have no idea what a blockchain is. Much like the internet, which started as something for engineers and became something that simply works.

Closely related to this is the fact that Tokenisation is moving beyond the pilot phase. Real-world assets, such as tokenised government bonds, funds and other financial products, are replacing PowerPoint slides with real-world usage. Messari and Forbes expect tokenised assets to become a permanent part of financial markets. The reason is simple: they are faster, cheaper and more efficient, and lower friction almost always wins.

The third point of agreement is that institutional participation will become a given in 2026. ETFs, clear regulations, and established frameworks mean that large allocations no longer depend on sentiment, but on policy. The market is thus shifting from narratives to decision-making. This makes crypto less explosive, but also less vulnerable. Less retail euphoria, more long-term capital.

The playing field is also changing technologically. Silicon Valley Bank and venture capitalist a16z point out the merging of AI and crypto. Not as vague promises, but in the form of concrete applications: autonomous software that independently executes transactions. Think of machine-to-machine payments, microtransactions, and automatic settlement. This requires a programmable, neutral monetary layer. That already exists: blockchain.

Finally, there is a prediction that generates little enthusiasm, but says a lot about growing up: consolidation. Mergers, acquisitions and economies of scale are increasing. The Financial Times already sees this trend accelerating and expects it to continue into 2026. Fewer mid-market players, more large platforms with licenses, liquidity, and users under one roof. Boring perhaps, but inevitable according to almost everyone.

All in all, this is not a picture of hype or speculation, but rather one of solidity. The first signs of these developments were already visible in 2025. Crypto ceases to be a separate world. It becomes infrastructure. Invisible, embedded, and functional. Not outside the system, but within it.

Sources:

Other news

The US and Russia are discussing the future of a nuclear power plant and Bitcoin mining appears in a subordinate clause. According to Kommersant, the US has expressed interest in purchasing electricity generated by the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, potentially for use in Bitcoin mining. It would be going too far to call this a joint initiative. Still, it highlights Bitcoin’s role as a flexible buyer of surplus energy, even in geopolitically sensitive contexts.
China accelerates digital yuan and reiterates its distaste for crypto. Beijing has made clear that it is fully committed to central bank digital money. The use of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins is being actively discouraged: not because the technology is unavailable, but to maintain control. Dollar-denominated stablecoins are seen as a threat to monetary sovereignty, a channel for capital flight, and a challenge to regulatory oversight. China is betting on its own financial infrastructure and sees little role for private alternatives.
EU puts crypto on fiscal alert with DAC8. From 1 January 2026, crypto platforms will be required to collect data on users and transactions and automatically share this information with tax authorities. Exchanges have until July to update their systems. In practice, this will make crypto holdings as fiscally transparent as bank accounts: trading remains legal, but any residual anonymity will largely disappear.
Metaplanet is doubling down on Bitcoin. The Japanese company aims to hold up to 210,000 bitcoins by the end of 2027 and is significantly expanding its share structure to finance this strategy. Through new A and B share classes, dividends and embedded options, Metaplanet is positioning Bitcoin exposure in a form that is more accessible to institutional investors. The board has signed off on the plan. Whether this proves visionary or overconfident remains to be seen.

Sources:

Satoshi Radio: The latest episode of Satoshi Radio focuses on a question that's been buzzing recently: does quantum computing pose a real risk to Bitcoin, or is the concern overblown? The hosts also reflect on the disappointing end of 2025, which saw no Christmas rally. Finally, it is discussed what that implies for the market in the coming period.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a marketing communication or recommendation. None of the content herein should be considered as investment advice or a substitute for it. Bitvavo makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the provided information. Investments involve risks. There is a possibility of losing your entire invested capital.