Bitcoin seeks support in downtrend
Bitcoin once again found support around €67,500 this week, but there's no recovery yet. The trend remains downward, and several barriers need to be overcome to reverse it. What’s particularly noteworthy is what’s happening with ether: an ETF betting on a decline in ETH is so far the biggest winner of 2025. Not hype or innovation, but a mirror of reality. More on that in this edition of Bitvavo Market News.
Market update
The stock market has had a turbulent week, alternating between days of sharp gains and days of steep declines. Bitcoin recorded a low of €67,500 on Monday and Wednesday, its lowest point since the outcome of the U.S. election on November 6, 2024.
Toward the end of the week, sentiment turned more optimistic. "Buy everything!" shouted investor Arthur Hayes on X, referencing a statement by the U.S. central bank that it "is ready to help stabilize the market if needed." But this optimism may be a bit premature.
In the short term, we're still in a downward trend. Before we can start thinking about a reversal to an upward trend, we need to see some clear signs.
The chart below shows a tough road up. First, the falling trend line and the 50-day moving averages that are tracking the decline need to be broken. These are currently around €77,500. Next is the horizontal price point at €82,000, which would mark a higher high than at the end of March. Finally, there's the horizontal level at €87,500; a return to the price range we saw from November to February.
Featured
The best-performing ETF of 2025?
What's the best-performing ETF of 2025? The answer might be a surprise. Not uranium. Not artificial intelligence. No hype or green energy. This year's best-performing ETF is... one that bets on the decline of ether. That's right, a so-called inverse double-leveraged ETF on Ethereum: $ETHD. It’s currently up an impressive 247%. And in second place? Another ETF betting on falling ether prices.
Definitely a blink-and-read-that-again moment. You might expect a volatile ETF like $UVIX - which tracks twice the volatility of the VIX - to be on top in a year full of geopolitical tension and uncertain central bank policy. But no, that has to settle for third place.
What this says is that 2025 so far is a particularly tough year for ether. The stock price has dropped significantly, and that's precisely what this inverse ETF benefits from. For every 1% ether falls, the ETF rises by 2%.
That also makes it a short-term instrument. These types of funds aren't meant to be held for months at a time. They are designed for active traders, not long-term investors. But when the trend is down, as it is now for ether, the leverage works like a turbo boost.
It fits into a bigger picture. Ethereum is struggling with its place in the crypto world. The Financial Times recently even spoke of a 'midlife crisis'. Where Ethereum was once the mature alternative, the go-to blockchain for DeFi and innovation, the momentum has disappeared. DeFi is at a low ebb, memecoins are flourishing elsewhere, developers are looking around, and within the Ethereum community, there is disagreement over the direction it should take.
So the fact that an ETF betting on ether’s downfall is now stealing the show therefore feels grimly fitting. Not because masses of investors are piling in - that's rarely the case with these kinds of ETF - but because the stock price itself tells the story. No whitepapers, no opinions. Just the chart.
In short, if you're looking for the frontrunner in the ETF space in 2025, you won't find innovation or growth. What you'll see is a mirror of reality: a market that’s having a bit of an identity crisis.
In other news
Total market value of real-world assets (RWA) surpasses $20 billion. While most crypto sectors are still hovering well below their all-time highs, tokenization is steadily rising. The biggest driver? BlackRock's BUIDL fund, which grew by 190% to $2.3 billion in one month. Nearly 60% of the capital invested is in Ethereum, followed by zkSync Era, Stellar, and Algorand. A notable fast riser is the on-chain fund of British-American asset manager Janus Henderson, which surged +290% in a week, and is now pushing into the top 10.
According to Grayscale, Trump's trade war is good news for Bitcoin. In a new report, the fund argues that import tariffs could trigger stagflation, a mix of high inflation and low growth, favoring scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Geopolitical turmoil could also prompt other countries to diversify away from the dollar. While stocks are tumbling, Bitcoin is holding up remarkably well. Chaos as a tailwind: Grayscale already sees it coming.
Ripple acquires prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. This makes Ripple the first crypto company to own a so-called multi-asset prime broker. Hidden Road serves over 300 institutions and turns over $3 trillion in annual volume in forex, derivatives, and crypto. Ripple plans to migrate post-trade processes to its own network and deploy its own stablecoin RLUSD as a bridge between traditional and digital markets. It is an acquisition with ambition: focused not just on integration, but dominance.
U.S. Department of Justice ends "regulation by enforcement." In a new policy paper (PDF), the department states that it will no longer act as a de facto regulator for crypto. Criminal action will now focus solely on offences such as terrorism and money laundering, while ongoing investigations outside that scope will be discontinued. The memo marks a clear break from the crackdown of previous years, and aligns closely with Trump's pro-crypto stance.
Satoshi Radio: The news that the U.S. is aiming for a trade war has been hard to miss. So, in the latest episode of Satoshi Radio, the tariffs are front and center. The fight with China, rising bond yields, falling stock prices and the possibility of bitcoin decoupling from them: all these topics are included.